Ah, those ever-shifting and often-confusing jobs numbers.

State officials are reporting an upward revision to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, saying it shows Wisconsin has actually been adding positions over the past year — although not nearly enough to help Gov. Scott Walker hit his job creation target.

Initial estimates from the federal government had shown Wisconsin losing jobs in 10 of 12 months in 2012. Those numbers, called the Current Employment Statistics (CES), are based on surveys of 3 percent of state employers.

But the BLS likely underestimated the number of jobs in Wisconsin, based on an annual process called “benchmarking." Each March, the BLS readjusts its estimates based on actual unemployment insurance data gathered from 97 percent of state businesses. That benchmarking now says the Wisconsin CES numbers were underestimated by 2.5 percent.

“As we pointed out many times when the monthly estimates were initially published, the estimations of thousands of job losses were based on unreliable methodology and did not track with all other economic indicators in the state showing job creation,” says Department of Workforce Development Secretary Reggie Newson in a statement.

Using that adjusted bencmark, the BLS is now showing Wisconsin with 2,796,000 jobs in December 2012 , up 67,100 from the previous December estimate.

“The revised totals show just how far off the mark those initial estimates were,” says Newson.

Nationally, the benchmarking adjustment announced Thursday was 0.3 percent and it’s unclear why it was so much higher for Wisconsin. BLS officials contacted by The Capital Times on Friday declined to speculate on that question.

More answers might be coming on Monday when the BLS releases revised data for all the states, which should offer a clear indication of how Wisconsin matches up with its peers. Earlier data was showing Wisconsin in the bottom 10 percent of states on job creation over the past two years. We will update the Cap Times' interactive jobs database after the new numbers are released.

The job numbers in Wisconsin have taken on added political significance because of Gov. Walker’s much-publicized vow to create 250,000 new jobs during his four-year term. A conservative Republican, Walker has branded the state “Open for Business” while pushing tax cuts and deregulation measures designed to help spur the private sector to hire more workers.

But the most recent adjusted figures posted on the state’s WORKnet website show Wisconsin has added 55,900 jobs since Walker took office two years ago — leaving the governor well behind the pace needed to hit his goal.

Politics aside, perhaps a more telling figure is that Wisconsin had 2,784,600 jobs at the end of 2012 compared to 2,878,300 at the end of 2007. So it remains 93,700 behind pre-recession employment levels.

“The good news is that Wisconsin is adding some jobs but the rate of growth is too slow to make much of dent in the job deficit,” says Laura Dresser, a UW-Madison economist.

To that end, the state unemployment rate jumped to 7 percent in January from 6.7 percent in December. The state added 12,900 private-sector jobs in January but lost 10,600 government jobs, according to the BLS estimates.

The national rate fell to 7.8 percent in February, down from 7.9 percent in January. The state unemployment data for February has not been released yet.

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(44) comments

Cornelius Gotchberg
Cornelius Gotchberg

Youse Lefties got some real stones talking about "fudged" jobs figures. Tell us again how the CHOSEN ONE has not taken a few liberities with "jobs saved or created!"

@Tricolor Dog Patriot says "...or all the jobs held by ONE person? Somebody has three part time jobs is a "3"? Really?"

The Walker Administration members are pikers when it comes to "creative jobs classification." What do:
*Sanitation workers
*Janitors in solar-panel-powered buildings
*Used Record Shop clerks
*Salvation Army workers
*Bus Drivers
*People that fuel Busses
*Bicycle Shop clerks
*Oil Lobbyists (Oil Lobbyists?????)
*Consignment Shop clerks
*Antiques Dealers, etc., etc., etc. all have in common?

They're all classified as "GREEN JOBS" by Hopey Changey. He knows that all Lefties will buckle, swoon, and surrender to complete rapture when the term "GREEN" is applied to darn near anything. Why? it confirms emotional truth and is emboldened by the emotional satisfaction from 'feel good' themes. The great thing about those feelings is they don't need to be tethered to any semblance of reality. Textbook Lefty!

The Gotch

pete
pete

@ calme - this is from the link

Secretary Newson issued the following statement in reaction to the revised estimates:
“As we pointed out many times when the monthly estimates were initially published, the estimations of thousands of job losses were based on unreliable methodology and did
not track with all other economic indicators in the state showing job creation. Today’s revised totals show just how far off the mark those initial estimates were. While we are encouraged to see the revisions bring this data series into closer alignment with other indicators showing economic improvement in Wisconsin, we will continue to monitor the series. It is our hope that the federal government demonstrates better performance in
the future with this monthly series.”

I wasn't "implying" anything. I believe my question was - why the numbers were so far off, that's all (again)

if my math is wrong 67,100 x 4 = 268,400 - then show me.

As for comparing to the rest of the region, there's a ton of apples to oranges arguments. MN and IA have near or higher labor participation rate as WI (upper 60's.) MI and IL are hovering in the low 60's with higher unemployment. MN seems to be recovering quite well but I believe are still below pre-recession levels of employment.

If you want to continue to compare "states economic well being" with other states in the region you will find WI in much better shape than some of our neighbors. Unless of course IL's $44 billion deficit is healthy somehow - (which state did obama come from again) Can you argue that WI has been doing much better than initially reported?

btw, while I appreciate your very hmmmmm,....teacher/parental obsession with me getting things right on these boards, you're integrity would be served well if you would be so diligent for those on your side of the aisle as well. Your all about truth and honesty a previous post of yours once declared, did it not?

calme
calme

You clearly don't get it.

I'm all for pointing out when anyone, regardless of political persuasion, is putting forward false information to support an ideological bent. You just happen to put forth the most incorrect and baseless positions on the comments board as of late, which is why I keep replying to your remarks. Sure, I see a lot of misinformation form all sides here... Your comments just happen to be the comments that induce a "now that's a doozy!" response that warrants correction more than the others. "btw", that speaks more to your integrity than it does to the integrity of anyone else.

Now, based on factual information your claim of Walker reaching 268,400 jobs in his first term is wrong. Period. His term started in 2010. Sure, your math is correct, but your figures are not based in reality. As I point out earlier, our state didn't create 67,100 jobs in the first year of Walker's first term. Instead, we lost a substantial number of jobs. At this point we have less than two years to create nearly 200,000 to meet Walker's stated goal... even after this most recent revision. While I would love to see that kind of job growth, current trends indicate the likely outcome will be Wisconsin continuing to lag behind the region and the nation in growth growth and job creation.

On that note, I also love how you ramble about "apples to oranges" economic comparisons with other states, list off some economic indicators you still don't understand completely... and still proceed to compare Wisconsin's economic state to that of MN's and IL's. You can't have it both ways, pete. Either you think there is value in state to state comparisons, or you don't (FYI, state to state, regional, and national comparisons of economic performance are a standard practice in economics, and they are largely "apples to apples" comparisons regardless of what you want to believe. Do some more research to understand how these comparisons are made and why they make complete sense).

It's clear you can't be bothered by the facts. I will never understand why some people chose to do so, but if you want to take comfort in ignorance to avoid challenging your ideological beliefs, go for it. Just know if you try to pass off your falsehoods as facts, I will likely call you out on it. Freedom of speech is a wonderful thing!

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

"2,878,300 at the end of 2007"

Why compare 2007? The number at the end of the Doyle regime was 2,681,000 in January of 2011 when Walker took office.


http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet/downloads.aspx?menuselection=da&pgm=CES

davea
davea

I wish the article would have included the equivalent numbers for our adjoining states.

pete
pete

"Using that adjusted bencmark, the BLS is now showing Wisconsin with 2,796,000 jobs in December 2012 , up 67,100 from the previous December estimate."

67,100 jobs in one year x 4 year term = 268,400 jobs. Nicely done Governor! Better make your political hay when you can libs, with construction picking up your celebration of low job numbers may be coming to an end.

ivy also states: "The national rate fell to 7.8 percent in February, down from 7.9 percent in January. The state unemployment data for February has not been released yet."

only the left can find solace with the fact people dropping out of the work force is good news.

calme
calme

Pete, every time I read one of your comment it becomes more apparent your ideology makes you oblivious to the facts and hopelessly lost in debate.

There is a link in the article that tracks the governor's jobs performance using BLS data...

http://host.madison.com/ct/data/interactive-data-job-growth-under-scott-walker/html_91c1d53c-86a3-11e2-8ee8-0019bb2963f4.html

Although not yet updated with the new figures, leaving everything else unchanged the revised data shows a total of 51,200 jobs have been created in Wisconsin over a two year period, or 25,600 jobs per year. This equates to an annual growth rate of 0.9%, which remains the lowest of any state in the region. Further, the total number of jobs created remains the lowest of any state in the region during the two year period.

Now, you can applaud the governor for the worst jobs growth performance of any state in the region and some of the worst jobs growth performance in the nation; however, most people would look at the facts, think, and come to the conclusion that it's not "working."

Like I said the last time we interacted, you might do yourself some good by suspending your beliefs, looking at the facts, and developing a conclusion based in reality. It's called critical thinking, and it's a very important skill to have.

pete
pete

my point was this, if they are off by 67,100 jobs this year, we could end up being closer to the goal that walker used in his campaign, that's all. I would be curious as to why the numbers are so far off in WI as compared to the rest of the region.

I do think we are going to see some good months going forward, new home starts are way up and as we all know, WI relies a good deal on construction and manufacturing.

calme
calme

If you are being honest about your intent, your point was anything but clear in your last comment. Any jobs gained puts Wisconsin "closer to the goal that walker used in his campaign." The reality is Wisconsin lags behind nearly every other state in the nation when it comes to job growth under Walker's leadership.

P.S. The numbers are not "off in WI" any more than they are in any other part of the nation. Jobs data is subject to revision in every part of the country. If you are implying that the network of local and national BLS employees is somehow conspiring to single out Scott Walker and purposely make him look bad, you are even further off the deep end than I thought.

Think, pete. Think.

array1
array1

Why is Wisconsins unemployment rate rising while the national rate is declining?

pete
pete

again, if you're celebrating people leaving the work force resulting in the lower rate then our priorities are vastly different.

array1
array1

You applaud governor walker for leading Wisconsin to the bottom 10 states for job creation?? Man you sure shoot low.

pete
pete

MADISON – Department of Workforce (DWD) Secretary Reggie Newson today released revised state employment estimates for each month in 2012. The monthly job totals have been adjusted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through an annual process called “benchmarking” to bring the sample-based series into
closer alignment with actual job counts. Highlights of the benchmarked estimates for Wisconsin include:

The Federal government’s initial estimate for total non-farm jobs December 2012 was off by 67,100 when benchmarked, representing a correction of 2.5 percent
for a revised total estimate of 2.796 million jobs that month from under 2.73
million jobs (seasonally adjusted).

The BLS’ estimated private-sector job count was also off by 2.5 percent, or 58,400 jobs seasonally adjusted, for December 2012 when the benchmarked
totals are compared to the initial estimates.

The BLS’ estimates show Wisconsin posted year-over-year job gains during every month in 2012 on a seasonally adjusted basis, contradicting initial estimates that had indicated job year-over-year losses during 10 of 12 months during 2012.

The benchmarking aligns all indicators, and all indicators show Wisconsin is creating jobs.

array1
array1

You forgot this bit.

"Politics aside, perhaps a more telling figure is that Wisconsin had 2,784,600 jobs at the end of 2012 compared to 2,878,300 at the end of 2007. So it remains 93,700 behind pre-recession employment levels."

Furthermore, the link to the jobs data base shows that since walker took office Wisconsin has a net job loss (fewer employed people) while all our neighboring states have net job gains. Now if this is something you would thank walker for then yes our priorities are indeed vastly different.

pete
pete

what's the net job loss nationwide since the recession? At the current rate of job growth it's going to take 8-10 years to get back to pre-recession levels nationwide, at the pace we're on in WI we could be back in 2-4 years if not sooner.

Let me ask, if our neighbors are all doing so well, why the budget deficits? Would you rather be a teacher in IL where their state deficit is hovering around $45 billion or in WI?

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

You can quit with the "bottom 10" talking point now, it is no longer valid. Leave it to the Feds to drag it out as long as they could.

calme
calme

False.

Norby
Norby

Pete,
But you forgot to multiply by 3 and divide by 7 before squaring the root.

pete
pete

so show me what I did wrong please.

calme
calme

I already did, pete. Your "figures" are imaginary. The actual data shows Wisconsin is among the worst states in the nation for job growth under Scott Walker; even after the revised data. You're math omits actual data from the past and makes bold assumptions about the future. Again, you're wrong... Par for the course, I guess.

Reply
Reply

"only the left can find solace with the fact people dropping out of the work force is good news."

The only ones celebrating people dropping out of the workforce are the corporate execs who benefit from it. Doubtful that they represent the left.

pete
pete

have you listened to this administration pat itself on the back touting the job numbers?

abby
abby

The BLS says they base there stats on unemployment claims, well what about all the people that ran out unemployment insurance?

Tricolor Dog Patriot
Tricolor Dog Patriot

oh, oh....there's a point to fathom

abby
abby

They keep talking about some jobs added which you never hear where , but you do keep hearing about all the jobs lost or cut and businesses that are closing, so how can we be gaining without also subtracting the ones lost. Maybe they are counting all the part time jobs that shouldn't be in the mix.

Tricolor Dog Patriot
Tricolor Dog Patriot

....or all the jobs held by ONE person? Somebody has three part time jobs is a "3"? Really?

DriveThru
DriveThru

So let's see, if employers take 100,000 $20/hr, full time jobs and reduce everyone to 20 hrs per week, no benefits and $10/hr, that will "create" 100,000 more "jobs" while reducing payroll and purchasing power by over 50%. Counting "jobs" is in many ways irrelevant because no amount of crummy, minimum wage, part-time McJobs can make up for decent paying real jobs.

spooky tooth
spooky tooth

Walker is mining WI by digging us in a hole.

dakref
dakref

Lynne is a troll, she is best ignored.

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

Anyone who has a different opinion than yours, is a troll (in your opinion). I won't tell you what your should be called.

Nav
Nav

There is Lynne 4300 putting HER twist on everything. She is very good at that.
Scott Walker said he WOULD create 250,000 jobs, not that it was his goal. He said he would create the business environment that jobs would locate to Wisconsin as well. None of these things has happened, and he needs to be held accountable for it.

I didn't read much in this article about President Obama, did anyone else besides Lynn? But since she mentioned President Obama, let me say he was soundly r-elected and the people choose HIM over the Republican party whose only interest are serving the rich.

tomtom33
tomtom33

Did you see the quotation below? Can you read? He said that he would "get government out of the way and lower the tax burden so Wisconsin business owners and factories can create 250,000 jobs." He never said that he would create one job. Government does not create jobs.

johnnn
johnnn

Tom, you might not (probably aren't) aware of it, but you're making yourself look to be as much of a buffoon as Lynn does for herself.

tomtom33
tomtom33

Why thank you. I'm sure that you believed it when Obama said that the unemployment rate would stay below 8% if we passed the stimulus. Was that a vow, a statement of fact? How about when Obama stated flatly that sequestration would never happen? What was that?

Do you believe everything that any politician says? Is Gitmo closed?

spooky tooth
spooky tooth

Tell that to the road builders, defense contractors, police, fire, teachers, street maintenance, public records, post office, army, navy, marines, air force and the list goes on and on. We're all dependent of each other, it's a big circle, government does create jobs.

array1
array1

Why is Wisconsin's unemploment rate rising when the national rate is declining??

tomtom33
tomtom33

A large part of our economy is based on manufacturing. Manufacturing is the last segment of the economy to recover. For a smaller microcosm, look at the economy in Rockford.

spooky tooth
spooky tooth

tt33, What about Sensata, a profitable company in Freeport that was taken over by Bain? Bain moved these good paying jobs to China last fall, threw 170 people out in the streets, but not before they were forced to train the Chinese or lose their severance pay. And to make it worse, Bain took a tax write off for flying the Chinese to Freeport so they could be trained and for moving the equipment to China. This is what your republican party is all about anymore, GREED.

tomtom33
tomtom33

What about Sensata? Freeport is not in Wisconsin last I heard.

Any company can deduct the cost of training expenses. The purpose of business is profit. Places like the USSR and Cuba put the employment of people ahead of profit. How have they fared?

The world market system is voluntary. Purchases are made based on the best value available. If you don't provide the best value, you go out of business.

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

Obama and the FEDS are the people who use the BLS numbers to suit their political needs. That is why he is mentioned.

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

The "source" (Politifact) is as far left as the Feds numbers, get real. The so called "recovery" of the Obama regime is just as hokey. Walker did not "vow" the 250K number, it was a goal. Classic example of the need to make Wisconsin look bad, last November numbers being off by 9,600, and taking almost 3 months to make the correction by the Feds.

It seems as Obama's rating plunges to around 43%, the Feds see the need to make the national unemployment improve.

tomtom666
tomtom666

Nuts

johnnn
johnnn

And Lynn, you are about as far right, and loose-with-the-truth, as they get. Please stop your bold lies. I'm sure you've heard of a web site names "scottwalker.org." It is Walker's site, and is sub-titled "Moving Wisconsin Forward." Here is a quote from a press release from that site:

“If you elect me as your next Governor, I’ll get government out of the way and lower the tax burden so Wisconsin business owners and factories can create 250,000 jobs and 10,000 businesses in our state by 2015,” said Walker to the group of over 800 business owners and community leaders.

citation: http://www.scottwalker.org/press-release/2010/02/scott-walker-unveils-plan-bring-250000-jobs-and-10000-new-businesses-wisconsin

Only in your fantasy-land would that not qualify as a vow. 'Nuff said?

Lynne4300
Lynne4300

Is it 2015?

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