Blog: Season will be measured by number of wins and bowl game, not Northwestern loss

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Tom's Takes looks back at the University of Wisconsin football team's 33-31 loss to Northwestern in Evanston, Ill., on Saturday:

1, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED: At first, I thought this loss would have a huge impact on the way the Badgers' season is viewed. Just look at the difference that game had on the Big Ten Conference standings.

The Badgers went from an outside chance at a share of the conference title -- and no worse than a tie for second place -- to a middle-of-the-pack fifth place. Officially, UW finished in a tie with Northwestern for fourth place. But since the Wildcats won the head-to-head meeting, they can claim fourth place.

Yet, the more I look at it, I'm not sure how much things have really changed.

Yes, it would have helped UW coach Bret Bielema to lay claim to a share of second place. And it's a game that was there for the taking, had the defense not collapsed in the first half, and the offense not folded down the stretch.

But there is no shame in losing to Northwestern, despite what some UW fans might think. The Wildcats have won 17 games the last two seasons. Eventually, Big Ten fans will start realizing Northwestern is a good team, with a dangerous offense and improving defense.

The Badgers almost certainly will win their final regular-season game at Hawaii to get to nine wins. They are still in a position to go to the Outback Bowl game.

The key now is to find a way to win the bowl game, especially on the heels of back-to-back bowl losses under Bielema. Fans will remember the bowl game longer than the Northwestern game anyhow.

I'm not saying fans don't have a right to be disappointed. But a 10-win season and a win in a January bowl game are still the measuring sticks for a successful season in these parts.

2, BREAKING DOWN BRET: The Badgers are a better-coached team this year. That seems obvious. So, Bielema has done many of the things he needed to do to start winning back some of the fan base, who seemed ready to jump ship.

Still, there are a couple areas of concern that remain. Bielema has a strong 36-14 record (.720) as a head coach, including 20-12 (.625) in the Big Ten.

But he continues to build much of that record with wins over poor teams. As my colleague, Jim Polzin, pointed out, the Badgers do not have a victory this season over a Big Ten team that finished the regular season with a winning record.

The Badgers also don't have a signature win this season. Their best non-conference wins are against Fresno State (7-4), a third-place team in the Western Athletic Conference, and Northern Illinois (7-4), a second-place team in the Mid-American West.

Their best Big Ten wins are over Michigan State (6-6) and Purdue (5-7). Their record against the top four teams in the conference is 0-3, having not played Penn State.

It was similar to Bielema's 12-1 team in 2006, which didn't beat a ranked opponent until the bowl game.

Bielema has just a 4-9 record against top-25 teams. Winning games against teams he should beat is one thing. Eventually, he's going to have to do better against ranked opponents for fans to give him their full support.

The other issue is winning on the road. After going 2-6 in Big Ten road games the previous two seasons, UW showed marginal improvement, going 2-2 this season. But that record is misleading. The Badgers did not play well in a road win at Indiana. They made too many mistakes in road losses at Ohio State and Northwestern.

Bielema has a much-touted 25-3 home record. He is 2-2 on neutral fields. That leaves him 9-9 in road games.

3, RATING THE COORDINATORS: I'm sure it didn't take long after the game for some fans to mutter that Bielema kept the wrong defensive coordinator.

I will admit, I have great respect for Mike Hankwitz, who was fired by Bielema after the 2007 season and is now the defensive coordinator for the Wildcats.

Hats off to Hankwitz for finding a way to slow the UW running game, which finished with 99 net yards. He forced the Badgers to try and win the game throwing in the second half and they couldn't do it.

UW defensive coordinator Dave Doeren didn't have as much luck taking away the Wildcats' strength, which is their passing game. Northwestern threw for 364 yards.

I do think the Badgers have made legitimate strides on defense this season. They finished the conference season not allowing a single opponent to rush for 100 yards. That probably seems like a hollow achievement now, but good defense still starts with stopping the run.

They have made improvements against spread offenses, despite the struggles against Northwestern.

I think Doeren continues to learn on the job. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's ever going to be satisfied. And he's one of the top two or three recruiters on the staff.

I think Hankwitz landed in the perfect spot. He's got smart kids to run his schemes and he probably won't be asked to do a lot of recruiting.

So, don't try and draw too many conclusions from one game. This still has a chance to be a win-win for both sides.

4, FUMBLING HIS CHANCE: I think it's a little overly dramatic, to think that sophomore tailback John Clay fumbled away his chance to be the Big Ten's Offensive Player of the Year when he lost the fumble on the Badgers' next-to-last possession.

Still, I think the Badgers needed to win and Clay had to have a big day for him to win the award. While he rushed for 100 yards, I don't think that will be enough.

While it was a disappointing end to what has been a strong second half of the Big Ten season, Clay continues to grow up before our very eyes.

I might be in a minority here. I know a lot of fans don't care about what I am about write. Bielema has gone on record saying it doesn't mean anything to him, either.

But I think it's a sign of growth that Clay came out and answered questions after the game about the fumble. I was among the people critical of Clay, when he didn't come out and answer questions after fumbling three times against Wofford.

Clay was clearly hurting after the game. Yet, he owned up to the mistake, took full responsibility and vowed to learn from the experience. Those are positive things.

Once again, Bielema said he doesn't care or not if players talk to the media after games. I have a vested interest, of course, so maybe I'm the wrong guy to judge.

However, I think it was yet another clear sign of Clay's growth. The guy's going to be fine. He is under incredible pressure. But he leads the Big Ten in rushing and he's still a young guy who is going to get better. Let's not forget that.

5, ALL-BIG TEN DISAPPOINTMENT? I've got a feeling the Badgers are going to feel shorted when the All-Big Ten teams are announced on Monday evening.

The team has three leading candidates for first-team consideration: Clay, tight end Garrett Graham and defensive end O'Brien Schofield. I think all three will make the first team, although Schofield has some really tough competition.

After those three, I'm not sure if the Badgers will have anybody on the second team, although wide receiver Nick Toon and left tackle Gabe Carimi could sneak in.

A week ago, Bielema touted the chances of three players winning top individual honors: Clay (Offensive Player of the Year, Schofield (Defensive Player of the Year) and linebacker Chris Borland (top freshman).

I thought Clay had the best chance of the three. Now, it looks like it will be hard for any of the three to claim those honors.

Last year, the Badgers had six players make either the coaches' or media's first or second teams: Graham, receiver David Gilreath, guard/tackle Kraig Urbik, defensive tackle Mike Newkirk, cornerback Allen Langford and strong safety Jay Valai.

There are usually some surprises, so maybe I'll be wrong about this year.

But that's another sign this UW team is filled mostly with young players who should get better.

Maybe this team finished about where it should for its talent level.

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