In the 358 days between his first State of the State address and Wednesday night's highly anticipated speech, Gov. Scott Walker has gone from conquering hero to vulnerable candidate.

A year ago the new governor arrived at the state Assembly chambers, fresh from a series of early legislative victories and armed with what he felt was a mandate for change.

This year, Walker comes into the speech a wounded politician. His poll numbers are low, his signature legislation has divided the state and sparked a recall effort, and his efforts to improve the business climate have not yet turned the tide on job losses. 

In fact, numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday show that Wisconsin is the only state in the country to have lost jobs for the past six months straight.

So, the question Wednesday night is whether Walker will use the annual address to mend fences and reboot his image, or to double down, defend his record and push for even more sweeping legislation.

"Oh what a difference a year makes," said Mordecai Lee, UW-Milwaukee political science professor and former Democratic state lawmaker. "Last year feels like a different era, one before the protests and the sing-alongs and the recalls. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out." 

Tough sell on tap

State of the State addresses are traditionally pro forma affairs that produce a couple of heart-warming anecdotes, a handful of applause lines and maybe one or two big legislative proposals.

Walker used his first to deliver a sober assessment, warning people of the "hard sacrifices" coming. 

"The decisions we face are not easy," he said at the time. "But, the benefit of finally making these tough decisions and being honest with the citizens of this state will help us to balance the budget in a way that creates a permanent, structurally sound state budget."

But this year's speech figures to be an event. Walker's spokesman Cullen Werwie said the governor's address will focus on progress made this year, including reforms that helped keep property taxes stable and his efforts to address waste, fraud and abuse in state programs.

It might be a tough sell, given the news Tuesday that Wisconsin lost more than 35,000 jobs since Walker passed his $66 billion budget in June. That two-year spending plan slashed state programs to close an estimated $3 billion budget hole.

Walker said the cuts, along with legislation aimed at changing the state's business climate, were supposed to put Wisconsin on firm footing and help turn around the moribund job market.

But according to the Labor Bureau, Wisconsin lost more jobs during the past six months than any other state. Illinois and Wisconsin were the only two states in the region to have a net loss of jobs during that span.

"If Gov. Walker had spent any meaningful time during the past year focusing on putting people back to work, Wisconsin wouldn't be falling so far behind our neighbors and the rest of the country when it comes to jobs," said Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca, D-Kenosha.

The governor's office counters such claims by pointing out Wisconsin lost 150,000 jobs before he took office. They say that despite the recent downturn, the state has more jobs now than it did at this time last year.

"While there may be some bumps along the way, Wisconsin is headed in the right direction," Werwie said. 

A potential circus

Wednesday night's message, however, will only be one part of the spectacle. It seems likely protesters will attempt to interrupt the governor and embarrass him as they have at other recent public appearances in the Capitol.

"It's really hard to make your point when you are being yelled at constantly," said Larry Sabato, a national political expert and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Ten days after last year's speech, Walker introduced his controversial collective bargaining bill. The proposal led to a month-long continuous protest at the Capitol and started what would become a year of bitter fighting that divided the state and incited some 1 million people to sign petitions to recall Walker.

The potential for another election has forced the governor to spend more time on the road raising money than in state focused on fixing problems.

"He's in a real pickle," Sabato said. "The outside image of Wisconsin is of a state in turmoil. That feeds into the problems Walker is dealing with. I'm not sure anything he says in his speech can fix that."