It may be the second coldest October on record in Madison so far, but the meteorlogical crystal ball looks bright: Forecasters expect warmer-than-average temperatures and a more manageable snowfall this winter in southern Wisconsin.

Give credit to El Niño, the warm ocean current that periodically flows across parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and which can have dramatic effects on the atmosphere.

"Wisconsin has a better-than-even chance of having above-average winter temperatures," said Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist Edward Hopkins.

Hopkins said current weak El Niño conditions should strengthen somewhat and continue to occur through much of the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Typically, said Hopkins, in an El Niño winter, temperatures across southern Wisconsin are about one-half of a degree Fahrenheit higher than normal.

El Niño affects snowfall as well, said Chris Franks, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan.

"A quick calculation shows it averages out to about a 20 percent reduction in snowfall for El Niño winters in southern Wisconsin," Franks said.

"A normal southern Wisconsin winter brings, on average, about 50 inches of snow," Franks said. "A 20 percent reduction would put us closer to 40 inches."

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agreed. Hedging its bets, however, NOAA added, "Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible."

Of course they are.

Wisconsin experienced 19 winter storms during the 2008-09 winter season, with four of them producing a dangerous mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow, according to Lori Getter, spokeswoman for Wisconsin Emergency Management.

During the 2007-08 winter season, many southern Wisconsin locations experienced all-time, record-breaking snowfall totals of 75 to 122 inches - about 200 percent to 240 percent of normal - including 101.4 inches in Madison.

And, Getter said, Wisconsin experienced several days during the 2008-09 winter season with temperatures below zero at least in some part of the state, and some locations dropping to 25 to 40 degrees below zero between January 13 and 17.

Madison Streets Superintendent Al Schumacher wasted few words in trying to predict this winter's weather.

"I'll tell you what type of winter we will have come April," he said.

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