On Politics: Professor with the crystal ball

Who could have predicted at this time last year that Wisconsin would experience the nation's largest percentage decrease in employment over this 12-month period?

Um ... actually, UW-Madison economist Steven Deller could have. And did.

Last March, Deller, a professor of applied economics, studied the ripple effects of Gov. Scott Walker's budget-repair bill and two-year budget proposal.

Deller felt Walker's plans to balance the state's budget by cutting spending and public workers' take-home pay will slow the state's economic recovery.

In a story that ran March 20, Deller estimated the state would lose more than 21,000 jobs as public agencies and workers were able to spend less in their communities. According to the most recent numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wisconsin lost 23,900 jobs from March 2011 to March 2012.

Maybe now some students (you know who you are) will stop rolling their eyes at his prognostications

"Usually we don't like to look back at our predictions," Deller joked Thursday. "Because usually we are wrong."

Deller said his prescient estimate was the result of simple economics.

"It's really straightforward," he said. "You take billions out of the economy and their will be ripples, and those ripples are jobs."

So, what does Deller predict for next March? He doesn't. He said that the current political upheaval in the state makes it impossible to get an accurate read on what the next 12 months will be like for employment.

"One thing is for sure," he said. "We have to tone down the rhetoric, because it is scaring people off."